Options in an Extreme World

       This blog has shied away from discussion and analysis of options trading strategies, hewing closely to Warren Buffet’s advice of not getting into something intangible one doesn’t really understand.  Not that there is no relevant mathematical techniques that underpin the whole universe of options pricing and
derivatives; see Black-Sholes for example.

            Furthermore from the perspective of an investment oriented retiree whose funds must provide a source of steady income, when talking about options there is no real or tangible asset that one has any real claims on, that are being used productively in an enterprise to serve the needs of the marketplace, e.g., consumer goods or goods that are value enhancing.   In the process of generating revenue from this tangible exchange of goods and services, income is also provided to shareholders, i.e., holders of the firms common stock.  Options on the other hand are derived indirectly from those tangible assets.

            In short, it is speculative instead of productive, so much so that most brokerage houses expect a special approval for options trading. And to make matters clearer, some of them even have multiple levels of options trading approvals.  In other words, not all of the exotic combinations of options trading strategies are available at each of the approved levels.

            Nevertheless, we will provide some analytical tools to evaluate options strategies.  There are any number of resources available online that provide excellent introductions to the subject.   Discussions in this post will assume some knowledge of the options trading universe.  For refresher material, a site that has some good examples  and for a feel for the more  convoluted, but not complex, ways that can be implemented this site is a good launch point.

A quick refresher.  Options can be either a buy or sell of either a call or put option.  The underlying instrument could be either a stock, ETF or index for the most part.  Also it could be an American or European style option.  Asian types are also available but the first two are more common.  A lot of the tools and calculations that we will use are applicable to American or European style options.

 There is a premium associated with such a trade and this can be summarized as in the following table.  Whether the outlook held by the trader is bullish or bearish is also indicated in the matrix below. One is an expense item charge to account, the other generates income into account.  Of course, it goes without saying that there is risk associated with any options trade.

 

Call

Put

Premium Fee

Buy

Bullish

Bearish

Expense to trader

Sell/Write

Bearish

Bullish

Income to trader

      Looking at any of the literally hundreds of strategies, their proponents usually propose buys and/or sells of calls and/or puts at various strike prices and some even at different expiry dates. Most strategies have the different legs of the strategy with the same expiration date.  They may have however different strike prices, and the guidelines will often mention at-the-money (ATM), in-the-money(ITM), or out-of-the–money(OTM). This derivation of ATM, ITM & OTM differs as to option type and is dependent on strike price and current trading price. This is summarized below – note how ITM and OTM changes depending on whether it is a call or put option.

Option Type   Strike < Current Strike = Current Strike > Current
         
Call  

ITM

ATM

OTM

Put  

OTM

ATM

ITM

            Finally, we mentioned earlier that additional approval is required before the broker will allow options trading. Example of requirements, just an extract, this from T.Rowe Price is shown below:

Type of Option

Initial and Maintenance Requirements

Covered Call Options

Underlying securities must be held in good
standing in your account.

Covered Leap
Options

100% of difference between intrinsic value
and leap market value.

Credit Spread**

Greater of 100% of strike price difference or
$10,000 equity.

Debit Spread**

Pay net premium difference in full, plus
$10,000 equity.

Short Straddles**

Greater of the requirement on either the put
or call, plus premium on the remaining side.

Uncovered Call**

Greater of 30% of CMV of stock or index,
minus out-of-the-money amount + premium,
or 15% of CMV + premium.
Minimum: If underlying is less than $50 per
share, $1,000 per contract; if greater than
$50 per share, $2,000 per contract.

Let us quickly summarize the concepts behind calculating profitability of options. As with any trading instrument profits or losses accrue based on the price of the underlying asset, be it currency, stock, ETFs etc.,  Also the premium or fee for the option is dependent on type, strike price and expiry date.  This is available as bid/ask quotes on any brokerage site or account.  It is assumed that reader is familiar with calls and puts.  Examples are shown in screenshots below – this is from the Schwab quotes; left hand side are calls, right hand are puts. Both stock type, i.e., Apple and an ETF type, i.e., SPY  are shown.  Note quotes for different expiry dates.

SPY index

      So, a payoff chart can be constructed that shows profit (loss) level as strike price changes. An extremely simple concept as is evident from the formulas below.  Lets first apply to simple buy/sells of calls & puts.

The code for this profit/loss calculation as well as plotting on a 2 X 2 grid is shown below.

###   Options in R – Basic Option types  
###   Profit / Loss Payoff Charts
############################################################
#  price vector to analyze atExpiry price

####   Assumptions; current SPY price 285; will use 1000 points to test and plot
#  analyze movements 25% below & above current price
CURRPRICE = 285
PRANGE = 0.25 * CURRPRICE   
p1 = CURRPRICE  PRANGE
p2 = CURRPRICE + PRANGE

incr = (p2p1)/1000         #  
#  price vector to analyze atExpiry price
atExpiry<-seq(p1,p2by=incr)
optProfit = atExpiry
###   For reference – these are the basic option types
basicTypes=c(“Buy Put”“Buy Call”“Sell Put ““Sell Call”)  
###    load libs for plots etc.,
library(ggplot2)
library(cowplot)

##########    function to prepare plot 
prShow <- function(parmList) {
  dat1 = as.data.frame(cbind(parmList$atExpiryparmList$profit))
  colnames(dat1) = c(“atExpiry”“profit”)
  print(dat1$profit[1:20])
  ttl = parmList$otype
  gp = ggplot(dat1, aes(x=atExpiryy = profit)) + geom_line()
  gp = gp + labs(x=“Price at Expiry”y=“Profit”)     
  gp = gp + coord_cartesian(ylim=c(5060))
  gp = gp + geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=pmin(profit,0), ymax=0), fill=“red”col=“salmon4”alpha=0.5+
            geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=0ymax=pmax(profit,0)), fill=“darkgreen”col=“purple3”alpha=0.5+
            geom_line(aes(y=0))
  gp = gp + annotate(“text”x = mean(range(dat1$atExpiry)), y = Inflabel = ttlvjust=1.4size=4)
  gp = gp + geom_vline(xintercept = parmList$pstrike)
  return(gp)
}


################################################
####    set up the option trades we want to anluze
####    example is geared to SPY priced as of 4/20/20
####    strikes & premiums taken from Yahoo quotes
###############################################
optStrat = list()
optStrat[[1]] = list(name = “Buy Call”profit = optProfitstrike = 314premium = 10.20lotsize = 100)
optStrat[[2]] = list(name = “Sell Call”,  profit = optProfitstrike = 305premium = 14.00lotsize = 100
optStrat[[3]] = list(name = “Buy Put”,  profit = optProfitstrike = 261premium = 16.50lotsize = 100
optStrat[[4]] = list(name = “Sell Put”profit = optProfitstrike = 265premium = 17.75lotsize = 100)


# calculate profit/loss depending on type of option
pqr = lapply(optStratfunction(x){
  strkPrice = x$strike
  premium = x$premium
  type = x$name
  profit = switchtype,
                   “Long”      =  atExpiry  strkPrice  premium
                   “Short”     =  strkPrice  atExpiry  premium,
                   ###  
                   “Buy Put”   =  ifelse(atExpiry < strkPricestrkPrice  atExpiry  premiumpremium),
                   # from (b)
                   “Buy Call”  =  ifelse(atExpiry > strkPriceatExpiry  strkPrice  premiumpremium),
                   # from (c)
                   “Sell Put” =  ifelse(atExpiry <= strkPriceatExpiry  strkPrice + premiumpremium),
                   # from (d)
                   “Sell Call” =  ifelse(atExpiry >= strkPricestrkPrice  atExpiry + premium,  premium)
  )
  #
  parmList<- list(atExpiry = atExpiryprofit = profitpstrike = strkPriceotype = type)
  prShow(parmList)
}  )
##   show on grid
plot_grid(plotlist = pqrnrow=2ncol=2)



 

The charts for the profit/loss payouts appear as below for the parameters shown in code above.  The strike prices are shown as the black vertical lines and the effect of different strike prices can be seen immediately from chart.

 

We mentioned earlier that there are any number of available strategies.  As an example of whats available here is a screenshot from Schwab

  Of course each has its own payoff profile and tools are available to analyze these on their site as well.  However, if we can duplicate that then as move farther along in the detailed review of trade taking into account the absolutely element of implied volatility, the power of packages available in R becomes evident.

   We will show how to code up the payoff chart for any strategy.  Note carefully the strike price lines – we could have picked any of several others.  As an example of 2 strategies take this for example:

Bull Call Spread (Vertical Debit Spread)
Bullish
Limited Risk, Limited Potential Gain
Definition: Buy In-, At-, or Out of-the-Money Call; Sell Farther
Outof-the-Money Call
Time Decay Effect: Negative Below Midpoint Between the Two
Strikes, Positive Otherwise
Increasing Implied Volatility Effect: Limited Effect

Using our program and with the recent SPY data for an April expiry we get following chart

Another well known is this one:

Long Straddle
Neutral
Limited Risk, Unlimited Potential Gain
Definition: Buy At-the-Money Call and At-the-Money Put
Time Decay Effect: Negative
Increasing Implied Volatility Effect: Positive

 

   To close out this post, options are complex instruments and this is just a start.  One must take into account factors such as intrinsic and extrinsic values, and the crucial elements of time decay and implied volatility when assessing the price or premium that is being asked.  In the interest of keeping the length of this post to a manageable level, this will be analyzed in the next post along with the help of R packages specifically developed to address such issues.   

The R code required to produce payoff charts for a complete strategy with as many legs as desired is shown below. Remember the strategy needs to be setup prior to running this as shown.

###########################################################
###   Options in R
###   Analyze profit profile of a particular option strategy 
###   Strategy must be defined in the list data object
############################################################

 

###   Inputs needed – will use SPY as example – curr price was 285
###   Strategy must be setup in the optStrat list below
###   >  legs of option with type, strike price, premium etc.,
###   > name of strategy for reference
###    will analyze 25% movements below & above current price
###########################################################

 

CURRPRICE = 285
STKSYMBOL = “SPY”
PRANGE = 0.25 * CURRPRICE  
p1 = CURRPRICE  PRANGE
p2 = CURRPRICE + PRANGE

 

incr = (p2p1)/1000
#  price vector to analyze atExpiry price
atExpiry<-seq(p1,p2by=incr)
optProfit = atExpiry
###############3
library(ggplot2)

 

###################################################
##    !!!!    This function assumes premium is absolute / always positive
###           Formulas have to adjust –  lesser confusion in setting up strategy !!!
#########################################################
calcOptData <- function(optStrat = optStratstratName = stratName) {
  lstProfits = lapply(optStratfunction(x){
    
    strkPrice = x$strike
    premium = x$premium
    profit = switchx$name,
                     “Long”      =  atExpiry  strkPrice  premium
                     “Short”     =  strkPrice  atExpiry  premium,
                     ###  
                     “Buy Put”   =  ifelse(atExpiry < strkPricestrkPrice  atExpiry  premiumpremium),
                     # from (b)
                     “Buy Call”  =  ifelse(atExpiry > strkPriceatExpiry  strkPrice  premiumpremium),
                     # from (c)
                     “Sell Put” =  ifelse(atExpiry <= strkPriceatExpiry  strkPrice + premiumpremium),
                     # from (d)
                     “Sell Call” =  ifelse(atExpiry >= strkPricestrkPrice  atExpiry + premium,  premium)
    )
    profit * x$lotsize
    #print(profit[1:20])
    #parmList<- list(atExpiry = atExpiry, profit = profit, pstrike = strkPrice, otype = x)
  }  )
  ###   Now lets add up all individual option profit/loss
  dat1 = as.data.frame(lstProfits)
  colnames(dat1)  =  seq(1,ncol(dat1))
  dat1$sumProfit = (apply(dat1,1,sum))
  dat1$atExpiry = atExpiry
  return(dat1)
}
###
###     plot the payoff chart for the entire strategy
###    if we want to show strike price lines – need to pass in strike price list
ShowOptionPL <- function(dat1stratName = stratNamestrikes) {
  ####  plot total
  ttl = paste0(“Payoff Chart “,  stratName)
  gp = ggplot(dat1, aes(x=atExpiryy = sumProfit)) + geom_line(color=“blue”
  gp = gp + labs(x=“Price at Expiry”y=“Aggregate Profit”)    ###,   title= ttl) 
  gp = gp + geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=pmin(sumProfit,0), ymax=0), fill=“red”col=“salmon4”alpha=0.5+
            geom_ribbon(aes(ymin=0ymax=pmax(sumProfit,0)), fill=“darkgreen”col=“purple3”alpha=0.5+
            geom_line(aes(y=0))
  gp = gp + annotate(“text”x = mean(range(dat1$atExpiry)), y = Inflabel = ttlvjust=1.4size=4)
  gp = gp + geom_vline(xintercept = strikesshow.legend=TRUE)
  plot (gp)
}
###   using SPY from yahoo 4/18/20  Buy ATM call @s1; Buy ATM Call @ s2;  s1 = s2  Sep 2020 expiry
stratName = “Long Straddle”  ###    
optStrat = list()
optStrat[[1]] = list(name = “Buy Call”profit = optProfitstrike = 285premium = 23.00lotsize = 100)
optStrat[[2]] = list(name = “Buy Put”,  profit = optProfitstrike = 285premium = 23.50lotsize = 100

 

oData = calcOptData(optStrat = optStratstratName = stratName)

 

ShowOptionPL(oDatastratName = stratName,  unlist(lapply(optStratfunction(x)   x$strike)) )
###########################

Appendix – Getting options quotes from Yahoo

####    & to get options chains  crumb used for test should not be hard coded
###    get the curl cookie first
require(RCurl)
require(stringr)
curl = RCurl::getCurlHandle( cookiejar =  )
####   To get cookies AND the crumb to use subsequently
ckie = “https://finance.yahoo.com/lookup?s=bananas”
xyzM = RCurl::getURL( ckiecurl = curl )

###  get the unix date number for Oct expiry of  “2020-10-16”; use that in date=…..
as.numeric(as.POSIXct“2020-10-16”))
urlOpt = “https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v7/finance/options/SPY?date=1602806400”    ##  for “2020-10-16”
dat = RCurl::getURL(urlOptcurl = curl);   ###  dat
library(jsonlite)
optFromJson = fromJSON(dat)
expDates = as.Date(as.POSIXct(optFromJson$optionChain$result$expirationDates[[1]], origin=“1970-01-01”))
expDates
[1“2020-04-22” “2020-04-24” “2020-04-27” “2020-04-29” “2020-05-01” “2020-05-04” “2020-05-06” “2020-05-08” “2020-05-11” “2020-05-13”
[11“2020-05-15” “2020-05-18” “2020-05-20” “2020-05-22” “2020-05-26” “2020-05-29” “2020-06-19” “2020-06-30” “2020-07-17” “2020-08-21”
[21“2020-09-18” “2020-09-30” “2020-10-16” “2020-11-20” “2020-12-01” “2020-12-18” “2020-12-31” “2021-01-15” “2021-03-19” “2021-03-31”
[31“2021-06-18” “2021-09-17” “2021-12-17” “2022-01-21” “2022-03-18” “2022-12-16”

##  market price
optFromJson$optionChain$result$quote$regularMarketPrice 
[1273.3
###   Now extract all the options quotes for calls and puts

dfx = optFromJson$optionChain$result$options
dfx1 = dfx[[1]]

dfx1c = dfx1$calls[[1]]  ####  this is finally the data frame of all calls in that expiry date
dfx1p = dfx1$puts[[1]]   ####   for puts
colnames(dfx1p)
”’
[1] “contractSymbol”    “strike”            “currency”          “lastPrice”         “change”            “percentChange”     “volume”           
[8] “openInterest”      “bid”               “ask”               “contractSize”      “expiration”        “lastTradeDate”     “impliedVolatility”
[15] “inTheMoney”    
”’
showCols = c“contractSymbol”“strike”“openInterest”“lastPrice”  , “bid” ,  “ask”“percentChange”“impliedVolatility”“inTheMoney” )

bkevnC = which(!dfx1c$inTheMoney)[1]     ###   to get the first OTM because calls < current are all TRUE
bkevnP = which(dfx1p$inTheMoney)[1]      ###    put is reverse get first ITM

dfx1c[(bkevnC29): bkevnC,showCols]       ###  gives 30 prior ITM
 contractSymbol strike openInterest lastPrice   bid   ask percentChange impliedVolatility inTheMoney
67 SPY201016C00253000    253          522     40.13 43.15 43.90       0.00000            0.3651       TRUE
68 SPY201016C00254000    254         1201     41.30 42.43 43.18       0.00000            0.3636       TRUE
69 SPY201016C00255000    255         1315     44.81 41.72 42.47       4.62293            0.3621       TRUE
70 SPY201016C00256000    256          943     44.06 41.02 41.75       3.89060            0.3604       TRUE
71 SPY201016C00257000    257         1003     43.34 40.31 41.05      14.17282            0.3589       TRUE
72 SPY201016C00258000    258         1005     42.61 39.61 40.35      45.92466            0.3573       TRUE
73 SPY201016C00259000    259          796     41.89 38.91 39.64       9.37337            0.3555       TRUE
74 SPY201016C00260000    260         1635     39.53 38.21 38.94       0.27905            0.3539       TRUE
75 SPY201016C00261000    261          486     40.46 37.53 38.31       5.09091            0.3531       TRUE
76 SPY201016C00262000    262          485     30.69 36.84 37.58       0.00000            0.3509       TRUE
77 SPY201016C00263000    263          593     39.04 36.16 36.89       2.70982            0.3492       TRUE
78 SPY201016C00264000    264          219     38.32 35.48 36.21      1.74359            0.3475       TRUE
79 SPY201016C00265000    265         1722     37.21 34.81 35.54      16.06362            0.3459       TRUE
80 SPY201016C00266000    266          864     36.93 34.14 34.91       3.41641            0.3448       TRUE
81 SPY201016C00267000    267          547     36.23 33.47 34.18      20.96828            0.3423       TRUE
82 SPY201016C00268000    268          904     36.00 32.81 33.52       0.00000            0.3407       TRUE
83 SPY201016C00269000    269          519     28.75 32.17 32.89       0.00000            0.3394       TRUE
84 SPY201016C00270000    270          918     34.13 31.51 32.22       0.00000            0.3374       TRUE
85 SPY201016C00271000    271          449     27.40 30.86 31.62       0.00000            0.3364       TRUE
86 SPY201016C00272000    272          473     30.37 30.22 30.95       0.00000            0.3344       TRUE
87 SPY201016C00273000    273          311     26.85 29.58 30.28       0.00000            0.3323       TRUE
88 SPY201016C00274000    274          968     28.50 28.95 29.65       0.00000            0.3306       TRUE
89 SPY201016C00275000    275         1181     28.96 28.32 29.02      2.06290            0.3289       TRUE
90 SPY201016C00276000    276          550     28.75 27.69 28.44       0.00000            0.3277       TRUE
91 SPY201016C00277000    277         1327     28.10 27.08 27.78      2.66713            0.3255       TRUE
92 SPY201016C00278000    278         1036     29.41 26.46 27.18       0.00000            0.3240       TRUE
93 SPY201016C00279000    279         1207     26.86 25.85 26.57      3.55476            0.3222       TRUE
94 SPY201016C00280000    280         2895     26.07 25.25 25.95       0.03837            0.3203       TRUE
95 SPY201016C00281000    281          745     26.15 24.65 25.37       0.00000            0.3188       TRUE
96 SPY201016C00282000    282           84     25.23 24.05 24.77       2.47765            0.3169      FALSE

dfx1p[(bkevnP1):(bkevnP+28),showCols]    ###   gives the puts 
 contractSymbol strike openInterest lastPrice   bid   ask percentChange impliedVolatility inTheMoney
100 SPY201016P00281000    281           95     23.24 26.37 27.00         0.000            0.3473      FALSE
101 SPY201016P00282000    282          488     26.62 26.78 27.43        10.319            0.3458       TRUE
102 SPY201016P00283000    283           63     26.49 27.19 27.82         3.801            0.3437       TRUE
103 SPY201016P00284000    284          183     25.50 27.63 28.27         3.574            0.3423       TRUE
104 SPY201016P00285000    285          659     28.17 28.03 28.68        15.074            0.3404       TRUE
105 SPY201016P00286000    286           51     25.91 28.46 29.14         1.608            0.3390       TRUE
106 SPY201016P00287000    287          105     26.85 28.93 29.55         4.110            0.3369       TRUE
107 SPY201016P00288000    288         4324     26.62 29.33 30.03         0.000            0.3356       TRUE
108 SPY201016P00289000    289           79     26.30 29.81 30.48         0.000            0.3338       TRUE
109 SPY201016P00290000    290         9828     29.60 30.23 30.94        11.488            0.3321       TRUE
110 SPY201016P00291000    291          352     29.19 30.73 31.38         0.000            0.3301       TRUE
111 SPY201016P00292000    292           92     32.25 31.19 31.85         0.000            0.3284       TRUE
112 SPY201016P00293000    293         1945     29.12 31.64 32.36       16.705            0.3272       TRUE
113 SPY201016P00294000    294          122     33.25 32.15 32.84         0.000            0.3254       TRUE
114 SPY201016P00295000    295          807     31.17 32.64 33.33       10.534            0.3237       TRUE
115 SPY201016P00296000    296          367     49.14 33.13 33.83         0.000            0.3221       TRUE
116 SPY201016P00297000    297          146     38.81 33.63 34.34         0.000            0.3205       TRUE
117 SPY201016P00298000    298         9302     31.75 34.13 34.85         0.000            0.3189       TRUE
118 SPY201016P00299000    299          232     44.76 34.64 35.37         0.000            0.3173       TRUE
119 SPY201016P00300000    300         3505     34.52 35.16 35.96        11.247            0.3165       TRUE
120 SPY201016P00301000    301          319     46.21 35.69 36.48         0.000            0.3147       TRUE
121 SPY201016P00302000    302          600     64.38 36.21 37.06         0.000            0.3137       TRUE
122 SPY201016P00303000    303          252     48.05 36.75 37.56         0.000            0.3115       TRUE
123 SPY201016P00304000    304          834     39.33 37.29 38.10         0.000            0.3097       TRUE
124 SPY201016P00305000    305          678     36.25 37.85 38.66         0.000            0.3082       TRUE
125 SPY201016P00306000    306          833     51.30 38.41 39.22         0.000            0.3065       TRUE
126 SPY201016P00307000    307          795     40.74 38.97 39.78         0.000            0.3048       TRUE
127 SPY201016P00308000    308         7064     36.50 39.55 40.38       13.609            0.3034       TRUE
128 SPY201016P00309000    309          163     41.73 40.13 40.95         0.000            0.3017       TRUE
129 SPY201016P00310000    310        19013     39.00 40.72 41.54         0.000            0.3001       TRUE




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